Fundamental Analysis
Gold has experienced a strong rally this week, driven by concrete market factors:
- Central bank buying boom. Institutions such as China, India, Turkey, and Poland are increasing their gold reserves, which now exceed U.S. Treasuries, reflecting growing distrust in public debt amid rising geopolitical risks.
- Falling bond yields and debt sell-offs. The collapse in demand for bonds is pushing long-term yields higher, making gold more attractive.
- Strong expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Recent weaker labour data has reinforced the probability of a rate cut in September, weakening the dollar and supporting gold.
- Concerns over the Fed’s independence. Political pressures, including attacks on the central bank’s autonomy, have strengthened gold’s perception as a haven.
Key Psychological Levels and Their Relevance
- $3,000: Base psychological threshold; its breakout marked the beginning of the structural rally.
- $3,300: Confirmation of sustained bullish momentum.
- $3,500: A decisive level; its breakout to new all-time highs signalled market euphoria.
- Next target: $3,600 (likely to be reached today). Breaking above this level could open the door toward $3,700–$4,000 if fundamental drivers persist.
Technical Analysis – XAUUSD | H4
- Supply (Sell) Zones: 3564
- Demand (Buy) Zones: 3479.77
XAUUSD continues to trade within an upward linear regression channel, showing some slowdown as it hovers around the mid-zone and the session’s POC at 3551.50. The last key intraday support lies at 3470.10, while a breakout of the 3578.46 resistance would activate a new key support at 3510.62, yesterday’s support level.
If the price falls below the Asian low and the POC 3351, we could see a correction toward the daily bearish average range and the channel’s lower bound at 3519.16, from where a rebound toward 3578 and 3600 is likely in the short term.
The anticipated bullish scenario will be triggered above 3552 and confirmed over 3563, with intraday targets at 3600 after the Non-Farm Payrolls release. A decisive breakout of the $3,600 psychological level would consolidate the rally and could accelerate the move toward 3650 next week.
Explanations:
- Exhaustion/Reversal Pattern (PAR): Always wait for confirmation of a (PAR) on M5 before entering trades at the key zones.
- POC (Point of Control): The price level where the highest trading volume occurred. If selling followed, it acts as resistance; if buying followed, it acts as support.
